Oct 2, 2012

interest rate and economists and AUDUSD


So almost everyone (who have mortgage in Australia) knows that RBA has lowered its interest rate by 0.25 points. Which is good news for many like me, as I’ll be paying less money to the bank.

I've been keeping an eye on economists and their predictions since I started trading. I think 8 out of 10 times they've made fool of themselves by predicting the future.

Yesterday only 9 economists (from 28) said that there will be a cut in Bloomberg survey. 

While markets were trading on the basis of a 75 per cent chance the RBA would trim the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent tomorrow, only nine of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on Friday thought it would.


Guess what 19 of highly paid professionals failed and now they’ll come up with some excuse to retain their highly paid jobs.

AUDUSD


This is what the AUDUSD chart was telling me, since 28th things were going south for the currency. Which indicated to me that the market is expecting there are more chances of cut than not.

I'm no genius in Economy or Trading (yet) but I’m glad that I'm not trading by the views of these economists and been short this currency.